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Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 19

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

The clock has been started for John's demise. Satellite animations reveal that the eye embedded within moderate convection has dissipated, and thunderstorm activity as a whole has weakened and become more scattered across the large low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates were T2.0/30kt from SAB and T2.6/37kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. A 0454z ASCAT pass hit the western circulation of John, measuring winds of 35kt in the southern quadrant. Assuming stronger winds are occurring to the east of the center, and assuming a gradual weakening, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45kt. John is passing over 22C ocean temperatures, so despite a light wind shear environment, continued weakening is forecast and the system should become a remnant low in about 24 hours while moving west-northwest. The remnants should turn north in a weak steering regime before dissipating around day 4.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 10/0900Z 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 10/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 11/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 11/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 12/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 13/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED