Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 24
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 6 2018
It is a little unclear what precisely is taking place within Ileana's circulation this afternoon as it begins to get raked by the low-level circulation of the nearby quickly intensifying Hurricane John. Visible and infrared satellite data does not bode well for Ileana this afternoon as it begins to look more like an accessory rainband of John's as opposed to an independent tropical cyclone. It is evident that, at least at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, John's circulation is elongating Ileana on a northwest to southeast axis parallel to the overall cyclonic circulation. At 1604Z, an ASCAT scatterometer pass sampled a small region of 50 kt winds, but since then, convection has been on a decreased and the storm is being warped considerably. SAB estimated T3.0/45kt as a current intensity on a degrading structure. Given the historical robustness of the mid-level circulation, however, Ileana's intensity has only been decreased marginally from 55 kt to 50 kt. This could be somewhat bullish.
With the nearby Hurricane John growing considerably, it seems likely that Ileana will be absorbed by the growing hurricane. The influence of other steering factors such as the inverted trough over Mexico are quickly diminishing in favor of John's expansive mid- and low-level flow which will wrap Ileana inwards toward the nearby hurricane in a cyclonic fashion. Warm waters could allow Ileana to continue pulsing diurnally, but keeping the robust mid-level circulation in line with the low-level center is expected to become increasingly challenging as John's circulation continues to grind at Ileana's comparably smaller circulation. Ileana's days... and possibly hours... are numbered, and Ileana could cease being an independent tropical cyclone in a day, and could potentially happen as soon as noontime tomorrow.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH