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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 5 2018

After falling apart a few hours ago, Eleven-E has increased in organization, with an expanse of convection cooler than -80C covering the center. A 0316z ASCAT pass showed a 35kt wind barb located in the deepest convection, with several 30kt readings nearby. Assuming that the tropical storm reading is contaminated by rainfall, but that at least some of the 30kt values are legitimate, the initial intensity has been left unchanged from the previous advisory.

Eleven-E is currently over water temperatures near 30C and within a deep moisture envelope characterized by mid-level relative humidity values above 70 percent. Both of these factors would promote significant strengthening of a tropical cyclone. However, wind shear is currently on the order of 10-15kt and only expected to increase further as a new system develops to Eleven-E's west. The SHIPS, HMON, UKMET, ECMWF, and HWRF all suggest potential for bonafide intensification over the next few days, whereas the LGEM only shows slight development and the GFS does not register the system at all. Given the current state of the storm, coupled with the forecast shear, only slight intensification is forecast. How long Eleven-E remains a tropical cyclone is a mystery, with differing solutions from almost every model. The HWRF slingshots Eleven-E around the developing storm to its west, opening into a trough after 48 hours. The HMON erroneously sends it into the coastline of Mexico around that same time. The UKMET, meanwhile, does not dissipate Eleven-E until day 5. In an attempt to split the difference, I have moved forward dissipation to day 3. It could still occur sooner.

Eleven-E is moving west-northwest, dictated by a mid-level ridge to its north. This track is expected to continue for the next few days unabated as the system parallels the coastline of Mexico. Models continue to waffle on the degree of interaction between Eleven-E and the system to its west, with the HWRF and ECMWF suggesting it will turn west around the northern periphery of the new storm before dissipating and/or being absorbed. Nonetheless, the storm is not expected to threaten land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 05/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 06/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 06/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 07/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH

72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED