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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 4 2018

Well, that happened. Eleven-E at classification six hours ago appeared to be a tropical cyclone well on its way to becoming a tropical storm. Since that time, a large burst of convection to its northwest has dramatically increased upper-level winds, causing associated shower and thunderstorm activity to weaken and become disorganized as the low-level circulation becomes exposed. Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier, so the initial intensity is left at a possibly generous 30kt.

Eleven-E should continue west-northwest over the next several days, steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. This track should keep the system parallel to the coastline of Mexico. Models are in good agreement with a persistent west-northwest motion, and it doesn't appear as likely that earlier solutions showing rotation around the developing disturbance to its west will materialize.

The intensity forecast is extremely difficult, especially given this afternoon's developments. While upper-level winds were expected to become destructive in a couple of days, conditions seemed--as of the last advisory--at least marginally favorable for strengthening; that clearly is not in the case. Despite ocean temperatures near 30C and a moist environment, this shear is unlikely to promote much intensification. The situation is complicated by the fact that the GFS does not register Eleven-E at all, while the HWRF merges it with the developing system to its west. The updated forecast has been decreased some to account for a more hostile environment that anticipated, and dissipation has been brought forward. I have absolutely no confidence in this forecast, however.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 05/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 06/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 06/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 07/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 08/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED