Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 10
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018
Ileana is an ugly tropical cyclone that more resembles an outer band of nearby Hurricane John, albeit with deeper convection. Satellite intensity estimates at 0z ranged from T2.5/35kt from SAB to T3.0/45kt from TAFB. UW-CIMSS ADT, meanwhile, continues to run near hurricane strength based on an erroneous uniform central dense overcast scene type. A 0100z WINDSAT pass showed that Ileana continues to have a very vigorous mid-level circulation which is maintaining stronger winds than satellite estimates would suggest. The initial intensity is held at 50kt, mainly in accordance with earlier ASCAT data and persistent convection over the center since that time. The environment around the system remains hostile, with wind shear over 15kt. This shear should prevent intensification, and the large circulation of John should absorb Ileana is about 36 hours, if not sooner.
Ileana is moving west-northwest, influenced by Hurricane John to its west and an expansive mid-level ridge to its north. It is thus expected to maintain its general west-northwest to northwest heading for the next 36 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH