Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 4 2018
An area of disturbed weather located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has quickly organized today into a tropical depression. Conventional satellite imagery depicts a well-organized system, with bursting convection over the center and a prominent spiral band that wraps into the center from the south and west. Intensity estimates were T1.0 and T1.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. However, given the increase in organization since the 18z analysis, as well as a partial ASCAT pass that showed 25kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, the initial intensity has been set to 30kt.
The environment the depression finds itself in is marginal, and likely to become destructive in a few days. A large disturbance, likely to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days, to its west is imparting 10-15kt of shear over Eleven-E, and this should continue through 48 hours. Thereafter, upper-level winds should increase even further to around 25kt, which should prove destructive. This is despite ocean temperatures near 30C and mid-level relative humidity values near or above 70 percent. The SHIPS indicates a bonafide tropical storm, whereas the LGEM barely shows it reaching that threshold. Our rapidly-forming storm barely registers on global modelling, and data is not available from the HWRF/HMON at this time. Therefore, the first forecast shows some intensification over the next few days while wind shear remains moderate, with dissipation by day 5.
A mid-level ridge is directing the system west-northwest, and this motion should continue for the next 72 hours. Thereafter, as the system to its west develops and intensifies, binary interaction may result in Eleven-E moving counter-clockwise around that system before dissipating. This track should keep the system offshore Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH