Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 51
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
03:00 UTC Wed Aug 14 2018
Hector is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone this evening, with a 2127z ScatSat pass indicating a weakly-closed low-level circulation at the apex of a sharp trough extending to the south. Recent visible images also indicate that the center is poorly-defined, although those same images show convection building closer which may help increase the stability of the vortex in the short term. Unlike previous days, Hector's convection to the northwest of its center has been deep and sustained, giving credence to the idea that stronger winds may be occurring underneath. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 40kt, in line with T2.7/39kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.
Hector is moving a little north of west-northwest, a motion that should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours as the storm remains on the southwestern periphery of an upper-level ridge to its north and east. Thereafter, Hector should turn toward the north-northwest or north as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for intensification as these changes occur, and Hector should degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours before dissipating in 3 days or so.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 15/0300Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW