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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 49

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM HST Mon Aug 13 2018

Hector is not yet on an uphill climb. After a large burst of convection earlier this afternoon, associated thunderstorm activity has weakened and become disorganized. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased below tropical storm strength, but current intensity values support an initial intensity of 35kt. There is still an opportunity for Hector to regain some strength over the next day as it enters lower wind shear and remains over marginal water temperatures. After 36 hours, however, an increasingly hostile environment should lead to the storm's degeneration. Dissipation is expected by day 5.

Hector is moving quickly west-northwest on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north, and the eastern periphery of an upper-level low to its west. After 48 hours, Hector should round the the high-pressure system, turning northwest and then north into the subtropical West Pacific. An approaching frontal system should wisk its remnants toward the northeast on and after day 5.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 14/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 14/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 15/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 15/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 16/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 17/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 18/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED