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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 48

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 13 2018

Hector has become a bit better organized since earlier, with a substantial increase in convection located mainly northwest of the still-exposed low-level circulation. There have not been any recent ASCAT passes, but PHFO, SAB, and PGTW all came in with a consensus T3.0/45kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT has inched up to T2.0/30kt. A blend of these values supports leaving the initial intensity at a possibly conservative 40kt. The increase in convection is likely a sign that the strong upper-level winds that have been affecting Hector are beginning to relax. With water temperatures hovering around 27C and mid-level relative humidity values steady around 50 percent, a brief period of re-intensification still appears likely over the next 48 hours. After that, an increasingly hostile environment should cause weakening, and degeneration to a remnant low in about 4 days. Dissipation is now expected around day 5 as the storm becomes involved with a frontal system.

Hector is moving quickly west-northwest on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north, and the eastern periphery of an upper-level low to its west. After 48 hours, Hector should round the the high-pressure system, turning northwest and then north into the subtropical West Pacific. An approaching frontal system should wisk its remnants toward the northeast on and after day 5.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 13/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 14/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 14/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 15/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 15/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 16/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 17/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H...DISSIPATED

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