Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 48

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 13 2018

Hector has become a bit better organized since earlier, with a substantial increase in convection located mainly northwest of the still-exposed low-level circulation. There have not been any recent ASCAT passes, but PHFO, SAB, and PGTW all came in with a consensus T3.0/45kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT has inched up to T2.0/30kt. A blend of these values supports leaving the initial intensity at a possibly conservative 40kt. The increase in convection is likely a sign that the strong upper-level winds that have been affecting Hector are beginning to relax. With water temperatures hovering around 27C and mid-level relative humidity values steady around 50 percent, a brief period of re-intensification still appears likely over the next 48 hours. After that, an increasingly hostile environment should cause weakening, and degeneration to a remnant low in about 4 days. Dissipation is now expected around day 5 as the storm becomes involved with a frontal system.

Hector is moving quickly west-northwest on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north, and the eastern periphery of an upper-level low to its west. After 48 hours, Hector should round the the high-pressure system, turning northwest and then north into the subtropical West Pacific. An approaching frontal system should wisk its remnants toward the northeast on and after day 5.


INIT 13/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 14/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 14/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 15/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 15/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 16/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 17/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW