Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 46
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2018
Hector has continued to weaken, with its low-level circulation exposed southeast of the associated convection which has waned and become more disorganized since earlier. Current intensity estimates ranged from T2.3/33kt via UW-CIMSS ADT, to T3.0/45kt from PGTW, to T3.5/55kt from both SAB and PHFO. Given a gradual hurricane spin-down, the initial intensity has been set to 50kt, a bit higher than a simple blend of the aforementioned values.
Wind shear as analyzed by SHIPS has decreased to around 15kt, a significant improvement from its 30kt earlier today and yesterday. These values should continue to fall and may decrease below 5kt tomorrow. That, combined with ocean temperatures around 26-27C and mid-level relative humidity values increasing into the low 50s percent, may allow for some reorganization of Hector. However, model guidance--namely the HWRF--isn't as bullish as it once was with this development, and given the current state of the system, it may be correct. Therefore, I have slightly lowered the re-intensification peak down to 55kt. In about 48 hours, water temperatures should decrease wholly below 26C, and a day later, wind shear is expected to begin increasing. Weakening is still forecast during that time, with degeneration to a remnant low expected around day 5. This could certainly occur sooner.
Hector made its turn toward the west-northwest a few hours ago as a mid- to upper-level ridge to its north intensifies. This ridge should remain the dominant steering feature for the next 5 days, with Hector's motion turning toward the northwest and then north after 48 hours as the storm rounds the western periphery of the high-pressure system. Models are in great agreement regarding this thinking.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 13/0900Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH...ENTERED WEST PACIFIC
24H 14/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW