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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 45

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM HST Sun Aug 12 2018

Hector is the least organized it has been since its formation two weeks ago, with an exposed low-level circulation located to the south of associated deep convection. An ASCAT pass shortly after 21z revealed a broad swath of 45kt winds to the east-northeast of the center. That, combined with current intensity estimates of T3.5/55kt from PHFO, PGTW, and SAB, supports lowering the initial intensity to 55kt. There has been little change to the forecast philosophy, with a reduction in shear over the next 18 hours expected to allow for a brief period of reorganization before conditions become unfavorable once again by 72 hours. This is supported by the SHIPS, LGEM, HWRF, and GFS. Degeneration is expected in about 5 days.

Hector has begun its turn toward the west-northwest, a trajectory that is expected to continue for the next 48 hours as a mid- to upper-level ridge intensifies to the storm's north. Thereafter, a turn toward the northwest and north is anticipated as Hector rounds the periphery of the high pressure system.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 13/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 13/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 14/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH...ENTERED WEST PACIFIC

36H 14/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 15/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 16/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 17/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

120H 18/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW