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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 44

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 12 2018

For the first time in 10 days, Hector has weakened below hurricane strength. Conventional and microwave satellite imagery reveals that the system no longer has an inner core, and is instead sporting organized, deep convection over and to the north of the low-level circulation. Current intensity estimates were T3.5/55kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and PGTW, plus T4.0/65kt from SAB. The initial intensity is set to 60kt accordingly.

Hector is being heavily sheared today, but these upper-level winds are beginning to decrease as the upper-level low moves away. Over marginally warm waters and in a moist environment, the storm is thus expected to weaken at a slower rate today and level off in intensity tomorrow. In about two days, the combination of favorable factors will be maximized and may allow some re-intensification of Hector before ocean temperatures cool, mid-level relative humidity values fall, and shear increases again. Degeneration is finally...finally...expected on day 5.

Hector is expected to curve west-northwest in a few hours as an upper-level ridge builds to its north. In about 48 hours, however, the system is expected to round the periphery of this ridge and turn toward the north.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 12/2100Z 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 13/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 13/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE

36H 14/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 14/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 15/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 16/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

120H 17/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW