Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 42
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
5:00 PM HST Sat Aug 11 2018
Hector continues to spin down over the open Central Pacific, with the disappearance of its eye on conventional satellite imagery. A 0044z ASMR2 microwave pass shows that the inner core of the hurricane has become extremely tilted thanks to 19kt of shear as analyzed by SHIPS. Current intensity estimates range from T5.0/90kt from PHFO, to T5.2/95kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, to T5.5/102kt from SAB and PGTW. A simple blend of these values would yield 95kt; however, given the decrease in organization since the time of most of these estimates, the initial intensity has been set to 90kt.
The environment over the next 18 to 24 hours is not expected to be hospitable toward Hector, with wind shear over 20kt excepted to persist during that time. And though upper-level winds are expected to become very favorable--less than 5kt--once again after that time, there is only a short period of time before ocean temperatures decrease below 26C. At least, those are the expected values if Hector tracks along the official forecast. Unfortunately, the GFS and HWRF are farther west and lower in latitude than the official track, resulting in a path over warmer waters that actually allows for substantial re-intensification. The differences in track appear to be related to Hector's expected curve toward the west-northwest in about 48 hours, and how long this trajectory persists. For now, the GFS and HWRF are to the left of the consensus model in the longer range. This updated forecast will not show re-intensification, but I have slowed the rate of weakening to compensate for these differences.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 12/0300Z 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH...WEST PACIFIC
72H 15/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH...WEST PACIFIC
96H 16/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH...WEST PACIFIC
120H 17/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH...WEST PACIFIC