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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 39

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

Almost as regular as the tides, Hector has once again blossomed convectively at the conclusion of a morning eyewall replacement cycle. Both the eye and eyewall have expanded appreciably this morning once the old inner eyewall became eliminated. Infrared images show a thick ring of -60°C cloud tops with some areas of -70°C occupying decent segments of the central dense overcast. Good temporal resolution on SSMIS microwave passes between 1505z and 1805z show that the structure of Hector is gradually evolving, with rainbands starting to extend further from the stout inner core, and infrared imagery suggests that Hector is slowly elongating on a north to south axis, perhaps indicative of the changing environment up ahead. SAB, PHFO, and PGTW had consensus estimates of T6.0/115kt, while the finer UW-CIMSS ADT has averaged slightly higher and has settled on consensus values of T6.3/122kt, with SATCON member consensus at the same value. The intensity of Hector has been thus raised to 120 kt, and appears to be presently on the rise.

Hector continues to track towards the west-northwest on a gradual northwest turn with the oncoming approach of a shortwave trough. This motion is expected to the end of the forecast window with marginal heading variability during the northwest trek. As Hector moves on this pass, we anticipate the influence of a nearby tropical upper-tropospheric trough to turn negative this weekend as the upper-level wind flow begins to take a hostile heading against the divergent flow of Hector. Wind shear on SHIPS guidance increases to 30 kt on Sunday, which may be too much for even a well-organized major hurricane to deal with effectively. Weakening is depicted towards the end of the forecast as a result of persistent unfavorable upper-level winds and eventually cooling sea surface temperatures, but further intensification or steady state is possible today before weakening ensues.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 10/2100Z 120 KT 140 MPH

12H 11/0600Z 120 KT 145 MPH

24H 11/1800Z 115 KT 130 MPH

36H 12/0600Z 105 KT 115 MPH

48H 12/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH

72H 13/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 14/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH...WEST PACIFIC

120H 15/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...WEST PACIFIC

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