Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 37
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
11:00 PM HST Thu Aug 9 2018
Hector has only changed a little since the previous advisory, with a slighter cooler eye and slightly warmer convection in the eyewall. Nonetheless, recent satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T6.0/115kt from SAB, PHFO, and PGTW. The final value from UW-CIMSS ADT also came in at 115kt, though raw values are a little lower in lieu of the aforementioned satellite changes. The initial intensity thus remains 115kt.
Upper-level outflow is beginning to expand to the west as Hector interacts favorably with the TUTT to its northwest. A low shear environment coupled with increasing water temperatures and adequate moisture may allow for additional strengthening in the next 12 hours. By this time tomorrow, however, the interaction with the TUTT should turn from favorable to destructive as wind shear increases above 15kt. Water temperatures should fall below 26C by day 4 as well. A combination of these factors supports rapid weakening beginning in 36 hours. The updated forecast is close to the previous one, and still higher than the HWRF/HMON that show Hector degenerating to a remnant low within the period.
A west-northwest turn has commenced as Hector approaches the western periphery of the mid-level ridge located north of the Hawaiian Islands. By 48 hours, the hurricane should begin to feel the influence of a mid-level low located in the subtropical Pacific near the International Date Line, resulting a turn toward the northwest.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 10/0900Z 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH...WEST PACIFIC
120H 15/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...WEST PACIFIC