Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 36
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
5:00 PM HST Thu Aug 9 2018
Hector is a Category 4 hurricane again. The eye has remained as distinct and warm as earlier, but core convection has deepened and expanded significantly, with a ring of -70C convection very nearly encapsulating the eye. Satellite intensity estimates at 0z were T5.5/102kt from PHFO and T6.0/115kt from SAB. The latest estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.9/112kt and rising. Given the improving appearance, the initial intensity has been set to 115kt.
Hector continues to be affected by some light shear as evidenced by the sharp gradient along the western section of the central dense overcast. However, these upper-level winds should decrease over the coming hours. With water temperatures increasing to near 28C, the potential for additional intensification exists, and the updated forecast has been raised above almost all model guidance which has thus far struggled to indicate restrengthening. By 36 hours, however, shear will increase above 15kt and ocean temperatures will once again begin to decline, causing quick weakening.
A west-northwest turn has commenced as Hector approaches the western periphery of the mid-level ridge located north of the Hawaiian Islands. By 48 hours, the hurricane should begin to feel the influence of a mid-level low located in the subtropical Pacific near the International Date Line, resulting a turn toward the northwest. This motion will continue for the remainder of the period as Hector makes the transition from hurricane to typhoon.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 10/0300Z 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH...WEST PACIFIC
120H 15/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH...WEST PACIFIC