Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 35
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018
Hector is steady state this afternoon, with a large and clear eye surrounded by deep convection. The central dense overcast is the least symmetric it has been in days, with a sharp gradient along the western reaches of the storm. This appears to be related to westerly wind shear of up to 15kt near and just below the outflow level. Satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T5.5/102kt from PHFO, SAB, PGTW, with a slightly higher value of T5.7/107.2kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 105kt. Hector is now the tenth highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy-producing hurricane on record in the Northeast Pacific.
SHIPS suggests that the shear plaguing Hector should change little over the next 36 hours. With water temperatures climbing toward 28C and a steady state environment in terms of moisture, Hector should maintain its intensity during that time. After 36 hours, Hector should interact with a sprawling TUTT across the western reaches of the Central Pacific, increasing upper-level winds to nearly 25kt. By day 4, ocean temperatures will again fall below 27C. The updated forecast indicates slight intensification over the next day, with more rapid weakening at the end of the period.
Hector is still moving west on the south side of a mid-level ridge north of Hawaii, but this motion is only expected to continue for the next 18 to 24 hours as the hurricane reaches the western periphery of the high. A curve toward the northwest is expected as it rounds the ridge and feels the influence of a mid-level low in the subtropical Pacific near the International Date Line. Little change in trajectory is expected thereafter.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 09/2100Z 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 110 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH...WEST PACIFIC
120H 14/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH...WEST PACIFIC