Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 34
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018
The eyewall replacement cycle that began yesterday morning appears to be nearing completion as infrared satellite imagery depicts large eye, with only residual cirrus fragments of the old smaller eyewall still spinning around within the eye. AMSU-B microwave data from 0732Z largely confirms the same thing. However, some westerly shear appears to still be impacting the huricane as evidenced by the eye being offset to the western side of the central dense overcast. The eye has warmed and cloud tops are beginnng to cool once more, indicating that Hector is perhaps ready to reintensify. SAB subjective intensity estimates have held at T5.5/102kt. UW-CIMSS ADT is beginning to climb slightly to T5.6/105kt, and SATCON consensus parameters range from 103-106 kt. Thus, with the increase in organization, Hector has been raised to a 105 kt hurricane.
A pretty clear westerly trek continues for Hector this morning thanks to a 591 dm ridge centered 300 nautical miles or so north of Kauai. A gradual turn towards the northwest is anticipated in roughly 36-48 hours as an approaching shortwave trough accentuates the westenr periphery of the localized subtropical ridge. An emergent cut-off mid- to upper-level low from the same trough could allow for a dampening of the northwest trajectory towards a westerly one in around five days once the system approaches 26°N latitude. Statistical and dynamical gudance are in generally good agreement with this track.
Some lowering of the current wind shear is expected to allow for reintensification over the next two days. Increasing sea surface temperatures during this time should also allow Hector to regain some convective muster. Afterwards, an increase in wind shear and unfavorable upper-level winds from an upper-level disturbance should begin taking a toll on the cyclone beginning in three days, with lowering sea surface temperatures compounding the problem towards the end of the forecast window.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 09/1500Z 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH...WEST PACIFIC