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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 33

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM HST Wed Aug 8 2018

Hector has moved out of range of the radar in South Hawaii, but the final images before it did so revealed that the hurricane was in the process of completing an eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall was completely encapsulated by a larger ring and beginning to open up to the east. This appearance is evident on infrared imagery as well. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T5.5/102kt and thus the initial intensity is slightly lowered to 100kt.

Water temperatures are beginning to slowly rebound along the path of Hector, and the decline in mid-level relative humidity values has come to a halt. After it finishes the eyewall replacement cycle, which should be in the next few hours, some re-intensification is likely to occur. After 48 hours, however, shear will begin to increase and reach levels above 15kt by day 4. Ocean temperatures will also begin a down slide again as Hector gains latitude. Weakening is thus expected at the end of the period. The updated forecast is slightly below the previous one at days 4 and 5, though not as aggressive as the HWRF which suggests degeneration by that time.

A mid-level ridge north of Hawaii continues to steer Hector on a westward path. The cyclone will curve toward the northwest over the next 48 hours as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. This trend will be exacerbated by a developing upper-level to the northwest of the hurricane by the end of the period.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/0900Z 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 09/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH

24H 10/0600Z 105 KT 120 MPH

36H 10/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 11/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH

72H 12/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH

96H 13/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 14/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH...WEST PACIFIC

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