Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 29
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
11:00 PM HST Tue Aug 7 2018
There are only minor changes to report with Hector tonight. The hurricane continues to be well organized, with deep convection in the central dense overcast and expanding upper-level outflow in all directions, especially to the north. The eye has shrunk and become cooler this morning, likely due to the finishing touches on an eyewall replacement cycle that appears to have taken place a few hours ago. A reconnaissance aircraft made its northwest-to-southeast pass through the center, measuring peak flight-level winds of 127kt, maximum surface winds of 108kt, and a minimum barometric pressure of 952mb. A blend of these data supports lowering the initial intensity to 110kt, making Hector a strong Category 3 hurricane.
SHIPS analyzed current ocean temperatures in the ballpark of 26.4C, and this is keeping a lit on Hector's strength despite very low upper-level winds. These cooler waters combined with a drier environment and pass close to the Hawaiian Islands—which have a documented effect on tropical cyclones even several hundred miles away—should allow the hurricane to weaken a little more over the next 24 hours before waters begin to warm, at which point re-intensification is forecast. By day 5, Hector should interact with a sprawling TUTT across the western reaches of the Central Pacific, imparting shear that should cause some weakening.
Hector is moving west underneath a sprawling mid-level ridge to its north. This westward trajectory should continue for the next 72 hours with little deviation. By days 4 and 5, the hurricane should reach the western periphery of the ridge and begin to curve northwest. A mid-level disturbance over the mid-latitudes should aid in this directional change, allowing Hector to near the International Date Line by the end of day 5.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 08/0900Z 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH...CLOSEST APPROACH TO HAWAII
36H 09/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 105 KT 120 MPH...APPROACHING INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE