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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 28

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM HST Tue Aug 7 2018

During the course of US Air Force reconaissance in Hector that concluded this evening, the aircraft identified winds supportive of a strong major hurricane. The last reconnaissance pass, taken in a vacuum, supported a 110 kt intensity, blending between 124 kt flight level winds and 111 kt SFMR strength, but it is probable that higher winds were not sampled on flyover. In fact, one dropsonde reported instantaneous gusts of 145 kt, and a GMI microwave pass at 2046Z showed phenomenal ferocity. Since that time, satellite imagery suggests some shriveling of convective structure and some shrinking of the eye. SSMIS microwave data from 0116Z showed departure from the annular structure Hector has long possessed, featuring an incomplete eyewall and a disparate rainband developing to the northeast. Still, satellite intensity estimates remain high, with raw UW-CIMSS ADT values of T6.0/115kt and SAB estimating T5.5/102kt. Thus, the intensity is maintained at 115 kt.

Satellite imagery and reconnaissance fixes suggest that Hector is still slowly gaining latitude. Still, a generally westward path is still expected for at least the first three days. After that point, a weakness in the ridge north of Hawaii is expected to induce a west-northwest to northwest turn towards the end of the forecast period. In the meantime, Hector is holding out in marginal conditions, but it need not wait too much longer. After about 48 hours, sea surface temperatures and moisture content are expected to finally increase, allowing for intensification. Towards the end of the run, the influence of the approaching trough may bring about the most unfavorable upper-level winds Hector has seen in a long time, producing some moderate shear. Slight weakening is depicted in response to this feature at the end of the run.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 115 KT 130 MPH

12H 08/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 09/0000Z 105 KT 120 MPH

36H 09/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 10/0000Z 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 11/0000Z 110 KT 125 MPH

96H 12/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH

120H 13/0000Z 110 KT 125 MPH