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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 27

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Hector remains an impressive hurricane over the Central Pacific day, with a distinct eye surrounded by deep convection. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating the storm over the past few hours, finding peak flight-level winds of 121kt and maximum surface winds of 120kt. A blend of these values supports leaving the intensity at 115kt. The pressure is 950mb. While wind shear is expected to remain light over the next four days, the hurricane is currently traversing ocean temperatures under 26.5C, and little change in that value is expected for the next 48 hours or so. Therefore, Hector is expected to maintain strength or weaken slightly, especially in the face of mid-level relative humidity values around 40 percent. Thereafter, a moistening environment and warmer waters should promote re-intensification. A leveling off in this strengthening is expected on day 5 as Hector interacts with a TUTT across the western portions of the Central Pacific.

Hector is moving west-northwest, but should turn due west within 24 hours as the mid-level ridge to its north strengthens. That westward motion is expected to continue through 72 hours, with a curve just south of northwest on days 4 and 5 as the hurricane reaches the western periphery of the ridge. There is high confidence that Hector's center will pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, although fringe effects are still expected there. The cyclone should approach the International Date Line just after day 5, becoming a rare tri-basin hurricane that is likely to continue piling up Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the foreseeable future.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 07/1500Z 115 KT 130 MPH

12H 08/0000Z 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 08/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH

36H 09/0000Z 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 09/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 10/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH

96H 11/1200Z 120 KT 140 MPH

120H 12/1200Z 115 KT 130 MPH