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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 26

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 7 2018

The long advertised slow weakening phase of Hector appears to be finally occuring as the hurricane tracks over marginal waters of around 26-27°C, but it is indeed very slow and could allow some legroom for brief reintensification spikes. The system has appeared more ragged since dusk, with cloud features becoming slightly less organized. The main culprit appears to have been an eyewall replacement cycle that began around 0z and finished by 9z, according to microwave data from relevant SSMIS and GMI passes. However, Hector remains a powerful and well-organized annular tropical cyclone. Recon data from earlier this morning supported lowering the intensity to a cautiously high 115 kt based on various reports of 123 kt 700 hPa flight level winds and a 126 tk surface dropsonde report combined with possible undersampling and satellite estimates.

Hector continues west south of a Hawaiian subtropical ridge, and there is not much new to say about its motion over the next five days. An approaching trough near the International Date Line in five days could allow Hector to find a weakness in the ridge and track west-northwest to northwest at that time. Marginal conditions are expected to remain for about two days before the atmosphere moistens an the ocean warms southwest of Hawaii. There are no immediate signs that Hector will suffer any rapid decreases in strength over the forecast window, so the improved conditions should allow Hector pick right back up and reintensify.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 115 KT 145 MPH

12H 08/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH

24H 08/1200Z 115 KT 130 MPH

36H 09/0000Z 110 KT 125 MPH

48H 09/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 10/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH

96H 11/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH

120H 12/1200Z 115 KT 130 MPH