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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 23

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Radiational cooling during the overnight hours and continued maintenance of a powerful annulus of an eyewall have allowed Hector to become surprisingly better organized this morning. The annular hurricane grew slightly as the region of cool cloud tops around the central dense overcast expanded outwards, and the eye became more distinct. Although there were some signs of an eyewall replacement cycle several hours ago, more recent microwave imagery from 0653Z suggests that this process has either not started cleanly or has been temporarily paused. SAB and JTWC both estimated T6.5/127kt, with UW-CIMSS ADT at a high T6.8/135kt. Some automated values briefly flirted with Category 5 intensity a few hours ago. SATCON consensus is at 129 kt, but is being ballooned by the ADT value. Thus, the intensity for Hector has been raised to 125 kt, which may be slightly conservative.

Hector is gaining some latitude as it progresses slightly north of west in response to a weakness within an elongated subtropical ridge, and will continue on this trek for about a day or so before restrengthening ridging north of Hawaii redirects the hurricane on a westerly path. Motion dictated by this new ridge should continue for the remainder of the forecast period. As for intensity, there are not many new developments in the intensity forecast. The storm's intensification this morning raises the base value for some of the values indicated, but overall the trends remain the same. Hector has done well in marginal conditions, and its annular characteristics should serve it well in allowing it to only slowly taper off in the face of modest lapse rates and oceanic heat content. There is increasing confidence in Hector tracking 150 miles or so south of Hawaii, which should keep it over warming waters and improving atmospheric conditions. After three or so days of waning, Hector is expected to regain muster southwest of Hawaii and begin a new trend of intensification.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 125 KT 145 MPH

12H 07/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH

24H 07/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH

36H 08/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH

48H 08/1200Z 95 KT 110 MPH

72H 09/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH

96H 10/1200Z 95 KT 110 MPH

120H 11/1200Z 100 KT 115 MPH

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