Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 16
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 4 2018
Hector has become better organized since the previous advisory, with an eye temperature above 10C and deep convection cooler than -70C expanding, especially to the southeast. Upper-level outflow is great, and the inner structure of the hurricane seems solid after finishing its eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite intensity estimates ranged from T5.5/102kt from TAFB, to T6.0/115kt from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT. A simple blend of these numbers yields 110kt, but given the improved organization of Hector since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is set to 115kt, making Hector a Category 4 hurricane again.
There's nothing to new to report about Hector's track. A mid-level ridge to its north is directing the hurricane west, but this ridge is expected to weaken somewhat after tomorrow, allowing Hector to move more west-northwest. On days 4 and 5, a restrengthening of this ridge should turn it back west, and there is increasing confidence that the center of the hurricane will remain south of the Hawaiian Islands. Impacts, however, extend far away from the center.
Hector is allowing to take on annular characteristics. These types of hurricanes are usually more resilient than normal tropical cyclones--and can remain stronger for longer. Shear is likely to remain below 10kt for the next but days, but ocean temperatures will decrease to near 26C on days 2 and 3. This, combined with mid-level relative humidity values near 40 percent, should promote at least some weakening. By the end of the period, however, warming ocean temperatures would seem to promote maintenance or even some reorganization of the hurricane. The updated forecast is close to the previous one except at day 5
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH