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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Nine-E does not look at all healthy this morning, with little signs of cyclonic organization in the overall convective pattern. Most of the surrounding clouds are cirrus debris with limited areas of developing shower activity, with the main area of convection localized to a small new area of storms southwest of the center of circulation. At this time it is hard to determine where the precise center of the tropical depression is located and how organized the wind flow is. A 0517Z OSCAT pass did show a somewhat elongated but closed circulation associated with Nine-E, so I am keeping it classified as a tropical depression even though its satellite appearance is sorely lacking telltale characteristics. Even then, the scatterometer data showed the strongest winds were displaced over a degree from the center of circulation. Subjective satellite intensity estimates of T1.5/25kt from TAFB and SAB are in general agreement with the scatterometer data so the intensity for Nine-E is kept at 25kt. We will know more about the status of Nine-E later today when day breaks and first light high-resolution visible imagery becomes available.

The southwesterly drift that began last night continues this morning, but overall motion as noted previously is still westward. The system is encountering the anticyclonic flow about a high pressure area centered over Hawaii, which is inducing this left deflection in the short-term. A more pronounced westerly movement should return after a few days. Models are in agreement that Nine-E will fail to intensify while it maintains a low-level circulation center, with wind shear not expected to decrease much if at all. No change in the forecast intensities for this advisory, which shows Nine-E remaining a tropical depression before degenerating into a remnant low in about three or so days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 28/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 28/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

36H 29/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

48H 29/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

72H 30/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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