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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Nine-E remains a disorganized mess this morning, with a small area of deep convection located mainly southwest of the low-level circulation. The system is being heavily sheared from the northwest, and this shear is likely to prevent Nine-E from gaining any strength over the next several days. In fact, most models suggest it should result in the system degenerating to an open trough at any point over the next few days. The updated forecast shows this process occurring by day four, but it could occur sooner in the face of shear near 25kt, even though both ocean temperatures and mid-level relative humidity values favor sustenance or strengthening.

The system has drifted south of west over the past few hours, but the long-term motion remains swiftly to the west. Like Gilma, Nine-E is being steered by expansive mid-level ridging to its north, and this should remain the dominant steering mechanism for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 27/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 28/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH

36H 28/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH

48H 29/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH

72H 30/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH

96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED