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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

The extent of deep convection associated with Nine-E has decreased over the past few hours, and the overall cloud pattern remains disorganized. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain at T1.5/25kt, and so the initial intensity is left unchanged. Nine-E faces 10-15kt of shear at the current time, which is actually down from earlier today. However, this shear is expected to increase to over 25kt by tomorrow afternoon and remain unfavorable to destructive through the remainder of the period. Mid-level relative humidity values and ocean temperatures are both favorable, but given the degree of shear, little change in strength is expected over the coming days. Dissipation is expected by day 5 in accordance with global modelling, although it is possible this could occur sooner.

Nine-E's motion is not completely clear, but appears to be swiftly toward the west. This motion is the result of strong subtropical ridging to the system's north, and this ridge should remain the dominant steering mechanism for the next several days. Such a path should take Nine-E into the Central Pacific tomorrow afternoon and keep it comfortably south of Hawaii in three to four days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 27/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 28/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

36H 28/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

48H 29/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

72H 30/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

96H 31/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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