Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 9
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018
Deep convection has blossomed with Gilma over the past few hours, and its low-level circulation was actually obscured for a short time until recently. Despite wind shear at an exceptional 40kt, ocean temperatures above 27C and mid-level relative humidity values above 55 percent are likely supporting this activity. Satellite intensity estimates were near 30kt, and that is the initial intensity used for this advisory. It would not, however, be surprising if a small area of tropical storm-force winds was occurring in the southeastern quadrant where convection has been most prevalent; unfortunately, ASCAT missed and does not offer us any clues.
The general thinking has not changed. Gilma is facing destructive wind shear which should cause it to degenerate to a remnant low tomorrow night, and dissipation to an open trough is expected in about three days. The system is moving west and should continue on that path thanks to low-level trade wind flow on the south side of expansive subtropical ridging.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH ..POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW