Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 8
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018
There has been little change to Gilma's overall convective structure this afternoon as strong westerly wind shear estimated as high as 35 kt continues to strip the circulation of shower activity. Hostile and turbulent upper-wind flow is evident in the upper cirrus deck of some of the depression's convective activity as the system traverses the southern periphery of a broad shortwave trough over the northern Pacific. Some degradation of the surface circulation is noted in visible imagery, but visible wind analyses from GOES West indicate that the circulation remains closed and sufficiently well-defined to be considered a tropical depression. Current intensity analyses support holding the system's intensity at 30 kt via wind persistence despite the degradations.
Gilma is tracking westward into an area of increasingly hostile atmospheric conditions. Wind shear will remain in excess of 30 kt for the entirety of the forecast period and the air is transitioning into a subsident moisture-poor airmass.These conditions should support a decline of Gilma from a tropical depression to a remnant low. This has been anticipated for several days, and thus the track and intensity philosophy remains unchanged this advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH ..POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW