Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 6
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Gilma is not well-organized, with an exposed low-level circulation and deep convection confined southeast of the center within the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Satellite intensity estimates ranged from T1.5/25kt from SAB to T2.0/30kt from TAFB. A 1753z ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 27kt, and given that deep convection has not returned to the system's center over the past few hours, the initial intensity is lowered to 25kt. Gilma is experiencing about 15kt of shear, and this shear is expected to increase further beginning tomorrow. Thus, despite warm ocean temperatures and a decently moist environment, Gilma is not expected to strengthen and should instead degenerate to a remnant low within 48 hours. It is possible this process could occur sooner.
Gilma is moving swiftly west on the south side of an expansive subtropical ridge southwest of California. This motion will continue for the next several days, even as the dominant steering factor switches to the typical low-level trade wind flow.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW