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Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

There have been two new developments with the cyclone since the previous advisory. One, a 0520Z ASCAT pass indicated several 35kt barbs, supporting an initial intensity of 35kt and yielding Tropical Storm Gilma. But two, the associated cloud pattern has become sharply disorganized over the past few hours, with the dissipation of the prominent spiral band that extended west from the center, as well as a near total collapse of the deep convection over the low-level circulation. In addition, the ASCAT pass showed that the center remains weakly closed, more resembling a sharp wave than a true, round low-level circulation. That being said, the environment remains favorable for convection to return later this morning, and some slight increase in strength is possible over the next day before upper-level winds begin to increase; this shear should become destructive by days four and five, reducing Gilma to a remnant low and ultimately an open trough by the end of the period.

The system continues to move swiftly west. Gilma is steered on the south side of an expansive subtropical ridge, and this should remain the main steering feature for the next five days as it continues west into the Central Pacific.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 27/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 28/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 28/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 29/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 30/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 31/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 01/6000Z...DISSIPATED