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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

The cloud pattern of Eight-E is slightly better organized this evening, with an expanding central dense overcast and a prominent spiral band extending to the west. Satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25kt from TAFB, T2.0/30kt from SAB, and T2.4/34kt. A blend of these estimates supports a solid 30kt, although this initial intensity could be somewhat conservative. The environment over the next 24 hours is favorable for some intensification, with wind shear under 15kt, mid-level relative humidity values above 65 percent, and ocean temperatures around 27C. Thereafter, shear is expected to gradually increase, becoming destructive after 72 hours. Eight-E is expected to encounter drier air by that time as well. The updated forecast is largely a reflection over the previous one.

Eight-E is moving north of west, steered swiftly by expansive subtropical ridging to its north. This motion should continue until the system degenerates to a remnant low around day 4, at which point a due west trajectory is likely to take shape.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 27/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 28/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 28/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 29/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 30/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 31/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED