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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 9

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

3:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Fabio has continued to organize since the previous advisory and is now a hurricane. High resolution infrared imagery shows that the storm's circulation has become fully embedded within the central dense overcast, with a persistent warm spot that is likely indicative of a formative eye. An extremely intense spiral band with cloudtops cooler than -80C wraps into the CDO south of the center. Although the recent DT satellite intensity estimate from SAB was a consistent T3.5/55kt, the MET and PT estimates were both T4.0/65kt. In addition, the recent raw T-number from UW-CIMSS ADT was T4.2/70kt. Given the developing eye which is indicative of a much healthier inner core than the outdated microwave passes indicated, as well as the improvement in the overall symmetry of the storm, Fabio has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane with an initial intensity of 65kt.

Fabio is likely entering a period of explosive intensification, but determining when exactly it peaks and at what strength is complicated. The GFS is bouncing around with its forecasts, first showing a sub-910mb peak in this morning's run, but now indicating a minimum of 945mb. The SHIPS, which had a bonafide Category 5 hurricane in its 18z run, now indicates a more bearish peak of 120kt; the LGEM, which forecast an upper-end Category 4, now instead shows a 102kt major hurricane. All the while, the HWRF has never deviated from its prediction of a ~965mb hurricane. Most of these changes stem from the fact that Fabio has intensified at a slower rate than their earlier output suggested; however, now that Fabio is a hurricane, it is feasible they may be overcorrecting. The environment remains extremely conducive, with wind shear under 10kt, ocean temperatures above 28°C, and mid-level relative humidity values near 75 percent. Therefore, the forecast peak has been left unchanged for now. Weakening, at first gradual but then rapid, is expected to begin after 48 hours as Fabio enters colder waters and a drier environment.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 02/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH

24H 03/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH

36H 03/1800Z 115 KT 130 MPH

48H 04/0600Z 125 KT 145 MPH

72H 05/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH

96H 06/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 07/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW