Tropical Strom Fabio Discussion Number 8
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
10:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018
Fabio is intensifying at a quick pace this evening. A burst of core convection erupted at around 21Z and has now asserted control over the structure of the developing tropical storm as a central dense overcast, enveloping the somewhat exposed center of circulation from this morning and early afternoon. A very prominent band has developed to the system's southwest and northwest, and is producing frequent lightning which is indicative of strong updrafts occuring in Fabio's rainbands. SSMIS microwave passes at 2310Z and 0043Z were indicative of an organizing core, though a true assessment of this data is difficult as the center in these images is somewhat hard to locate amidst bursting convection. At the very least, it appears that a strong southern curved band exists at the center, and with new convection to the center's east, perhaps this is the beginnings of eyewall formation. SAB and TAFB subjective analyses indicate T3.5/55kt with an embedded center. UW-CIMSS ADT has been fluctuating some but is generally in agreement, though raw values are beginning to flirt with hurricane intensity. With satellite consensus in agreement with these values, the Fabio's intensity has been set to 55 kt this advisory.
The tropical storm is being kept on a west to west-northwesterly track by dominant Gulf of Mexico ridging, and this should continue steering Fabio west-northwest as ridging expands across the continental United States and Mexico. No change in the track philosophy is featured in this advisory as models continue to be in general agreement given the simplicity of steering factors, and have not changed throughout the day.
Water vapor imagery indicates some unfavorable upper-level flow is displacing outflow this evening to the southwest offset from convection. However, convection is on the increase and continued latent heat release will bring about a more co-aligned upper-level anticyclone. Even without the anticyclone, upper-level winds will continue to improve. Conditions are certainly favorable for intensification and Fabio has certainly taken advantage of those conditions with its developments this afternoon. Statistical guidance has scaled back somewhat regarding the intensification of Fabio, though in analyzing parameters involved in this guidance, the change appears to be more of a reevaluation of conditions rather than some new unforeseen development. SHIPS has scaled back to a solid Category 4, in line with our previous forecast intensity, while LGEM regressed to a Category 3 hurricane. HMON and HWRF hurricane guidance are in good agreement and echo the LGEM with the general intensity forecast, with global guidance showing more or less the same with the exception of the GFS which shows what appears to be a Category 4/5. Fabio has intensified as expected and with no changes in the environmental parameters in Fabio's path, the general forecast philosophy remains the same this advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH