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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 5

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

4:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2018

Fabio has become substantially better organized since the previous advisory. Central convection has organized into a central dense overcast, with cloudtops cooler than -80°C near and west of the center. Outflow is now exceptional to the north, likely aided by the weak upper-level trough that was shearing the cyclone yesterday. Satellite intensity estimates range from T2.5/35kt from TAFB, to T2.7/39kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, to 43kt from SATCON, to T3.0/45kt from SAB. As such, the initial intensity has been raised to 40kt.

The track forecast remains of high confidence. Seven-E is being steered west-northwest by expansive mid-level ridging to its north, and an overwhelming majority of models are in excellent agreement that this motion should continue through day 5. The latest run of the UKMET is still south of most models, but it has shifted closer to the consensus compared to the 12z run.

The question revolving around Fabio is not whether it will become a powerful tropical cyclone, but rather when will it do so and what will its ultimate peak be? The environment is exceptionally conducive for strengthening, with low wind shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and warm ocean temperatures. The only limiting factor continues to be the somewhat broad nature of Fabio, but even this is just delaying the inevitable period of rapid intensification once the cyclone establishes an inner core. The UKMET and GFS continue to indicate a sub-950mb hurricane at peak, and the SHIPS and LGEM are at their most aggressive yet, forecasting 122kt and 114kt, respectively. The updated forecast is raised slightly above the previous one, and Fabio is now expected to become a Category 4 hurricane. Weakening is expected to begin on day 4 as the storm moves over cooler water.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 01/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 02/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 02/1800Z 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 03/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH

72H 04/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH

96H 05/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 06/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

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