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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 23

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Fabio is falling apart. All convection deeper than -60°C has dissipated, leaving shallow and disorganized thunderstorm activity over its low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen to T2.8/41kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, T2.5/35kt from TAFB, and T2.0/30kt from SAB. A blend of these estimates would yield an initial intensity of 35kt. However, it has instead been set at 40kt under the assumption winds have not decreased quite that quickly. The environment is destructive for the system, with ocean temperatures under 22°C currently. Wind shear is beginning to increase while mid-level relative humidity values continue their decline. Fabio is now expected to become a tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low within 36 hours. Dissipation is expected by day 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 06/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 06/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH

36H 07/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 07/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 08/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED