Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 22
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Infrared imagery from this morning shows Fabio continuing to lose convection to dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures, bearing a largely ragged appearance that has only become more ragged since last night. Internally the weakening tropical storm still bears asymmetric deep convection, but once again there is no core structure any longer as subsident air clears out convective activity as it spins around the center of circulation. SAB provided a current intensity of T3.5/55kt and a final value of T3.0/45kt. UW-CIMSS ADT parameters were all in agreement suggesting a 55kt intensity. Given good consensus from subjective and objective estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered further to 55 kt.
A shortwave trough is luring Fabio towards the northwest, and will continue to do so in the short-term. Once Fabio weakens sufficiently, however, it should avoid this undercurrent and curve west with the dominant subtropical easterlies. Sea surface temperatures have fallen below 23°C and will continue fall. Convective loss exacerbated by a gradually drying environment will allow for Fabio to spin down fairly quickly. Transition to a remnant low is depicted in the forecast in around 36 hours, with no significant changes from the former advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW