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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 21

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Fabio continues to weaken quickly. Convection has warmed and become much more ragged over the past few hours, while a 0536z microwave pass showed no semblance of an inner core. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased to T3.0/45kt from SAB and T3.7/59kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Despite the rapid degradation in appearance, it is unlikely winds are actually falling as quickly as the estimate from SAB would suggest, and so the initial intensity has been set at 60kt in line with CIMSS.

There's nothing new to report with the track or intensity of Fabio. Wind shear remains low, but ocean temperatures have now decreased below 24°C, and this trend is expected to continue. Mid-level relative humidity values remain adequate, but these are too expected to fall—to below 50 percent over the next 36 hours. Thus, rapid weakening is forecast to continue, leading to Fabio's degeneration within 48 hours and dissipation by day 4. The storm is expected to continue west-northwest for the next 96 hours, then turn more westerly thereafter as it's embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 05/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 06/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 06/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 07/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 08/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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