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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 20

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Fabio continues to find the cooler waters of the subtropical Pacific unpleasant this evening, with the system's organization continuing to degrade. The visible eye from this morning has disappeared, instead replaced by some centralized convection as Fabio struggles to maintain its intensity. While infrared imagery shows a fair bit of -70°C cloud tops, microwave data from 2247Z shows a system in decay with active convection only occuring only in the eastern semicircle as dry air has taken residence on the storm's western half. Fabio is still tracking west-northwest around strong US ridging into waters that have dropped below 25°C by some analyses. UW-CIMSS ADT raw values are now at or below minimal hurricane intensity, while SAB gave T3.5/55kt as a final T-value. However, as the storm is weakening, its intensity for this advisory is kept higher at 70 kt, in line with the lagged current intensity values from UW-CIMSS and SAB.

An upper-level trough will act in concert with cold waters and a drying environment to eventually clear out convective activity for Fabio, spelling the end of its tropical lifespan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 05/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 05/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 06/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 06/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 07/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 08/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED