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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 19

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Colder waters continue to take a toll on Hurricane Fabio. The eye has become obscured on infrared imagery, and it is only faintly apparent on visible imagery this afternoon. There has been little to no significant convection north of the central dense overcast, where water temperatures are well below 26°C. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased to T4.5/77kt from SAB and T4.7/82kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. A blend of these estimates yields an initial intensity of 80kt. Continued weakening is expected as Fabio moves west-northwest with little deviation, and the combination of cold waters, increasing wind shear, and a much drier environment should prompt degeneration to a remnant low within 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 80 KT 90 MPH

12H 05/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 05/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 06/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 06/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 07/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 08/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 09/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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