Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 18

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Fabio is trying all it can this morning to salvage its high potential, isolating its central dense overcast from the rest of convection and attempting to build some colder cloud tops again around the eye, which still remains on infrared imagery from this morning. However, satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with TAFB and SAB estimating T4.5/77kt subjectively and automated Dvorak systems estimating T4.3/72kt and T4.6/80kt. Given that it does not appear that rapid weakening is in play just yet, and also considering that convection has increased somewhat since the last advisory, I have lowered the intensity for Fabio only slightly to 85 kt.

The hurricane continues to track west-northwest, and it is steadily approaching the East Pacific sea surface temperature cliff which should thin out convection throughout the day today as ocean temperatures quickly fall below 24C, approaching outright hostile temperatures after 24 hours. Steady weakening is depicted in the forecast today, followed by a sharp decline as Fabio dries out.


INIT 04/1500Z 85 KT 100 MPH

12H 04/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 05/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 05/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 06/0600Z 40 KT 40 MPH

72H 07/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 08/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 09/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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