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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 17

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Fabio has continued to weaken over the past few hours. Although the eye is still distinct, a massive chunk of the central dense overcast north of the center has eroded, likely due to dry air entrainment and perhaps cold water upwelling. The satellite intensity estimate from SAB has actually increased to T5.0/90kt after falling earlier this afternoon, but adjusted and raw estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased to around 90kt as well. That is the value used for this advisory.

The upper-level environment remains extremely conducive for development, with wind shear less than 5kt. However, mid-level relative humidity values are beginning to decrease, and more importantly, ocean temperatures have fallen below 27°C. In the short term, with little ocean heat content, the strength of the storm is likely to prompt cold water upwelling if it hasn't already started. By 36 hours, water temperatures are likely to fall even further to 21°C—unfavorable would be an understatement. As such, Fabio is expected to weaken at an increasing pace over the next few days, ultimately degenerating to a remnant low within 96 hours

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 90 KT 105 MPH

12H 04/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH

24H 05/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 05/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 06/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 07/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 08/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 09/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW