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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 16

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Dry air has kept a stranglehold on Fabio all afternoon, chipping away at each and every one of its attempts at convective reinitiation. Time and time again, a deep convective ring has been disrupted by dry air continuously entrained in Fabio's circulation. Microwave images this evening suggest Fabio does not have a complete eyewall, confirming the inference from the incomplete convective rings on infrared. SAB has dropped their CI estimate to T4.5/77kt once more, while raw UW-CIMSS ADT values have fallen to T4.8/85kt. Based on this information, but checking it against the fact that the overall structure of Fabio is not astoundingly different compared to this afternoon, I have reduced Fabio's intensity to 95 kt this advisory, likely signalling the beginning of a prolonged weakening trend.  

In the interim, while subsidence whittles away at Fabio, warm sea surface temperatures and favorable upper-level winds, as well as its large size, should help slow the weakening process during the overnight hours. However, tomorrow afternoon Fabio is expected to track across a sharp thermal gradient that will lower sea surface temperatures by 7°C over the course of 24 hours. After that point, Fabio will weaken quite precipitously before it becomes a remnant low in about four days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 95 KT 110 MPH

12H 04/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH

24H 04/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH

36H 04/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH

48H 05/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 06/0000Z 35 KT 45 MPH

96H 07/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 08/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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