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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 15

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Deep convection has been rotating around the eye of Fabio, which has finally become a persistent feature; in fact, the latest Dvorak frame indicates an eye above 9C. Dry air continues to intermittently disrupt the organization of the central dense overcast, but so far Fabio has been able to continue strengthening. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90kt from SAB and TAFB, to 105kt from SATCON, to 115kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. A blend of these values supports raising the initial intensity to 100kt, making Fabio a Category 3 hurricane. Environmental conditions will remain favorable for another 12 hours, and so some slight intensification is possible overnight before the hurricane enters cooler waters and a drier environment. It should degenerate to a remnant low by day 4.

Fabio continues to move swiftly west-northwest as it has for its duration so far, and this is expected to continue for the next 5 days as mid-level ridging extending west from Mexico remains in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 03/0600Z 105 KT 120 MPH

24H 04/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH

36H 04/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 05/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 06/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

96H 07/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 08/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW