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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 14

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Fabio is a system in great flux. Appreciable gains were made in convective strength and organization during the overnight hours, with an eye occasionally appearing on longwave and shortwave infrared channels, with cloud tops in excess of -70°C at times completely encircling the nascent eye. However, all night the intrusion of dry air has plagued Fabio, undercutting convective activity by warming cloud tops and making surgical incisions into the heart of the hurricane. Microwave imagery illustrates the tale of dry air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere repeatedly getting funneled into Fabio's circulation and rotating about in the eyewall. At 1133Z microwave data from SSMIS showed an an eyewall open to the northeast towards an internal patch of subsidence. Since then that area of dry air has persisted, allowing an open gap seen on infrared channels for dry air to enter the circulation directly from the northwest. With convection waxing and waning in lockstep with this dry air, satellite intensity estimates continue to wander in flux. SAB estimated T4.5/77kt while UW-CIMSS ADT has repeatedly increased and decreased, with adjusted values varying from T6.0/115kt to T4.8/85kt, arriving currently at T5.3/97kt though final T values are higher as they try to find a place to settle amid all this variance. SATCON is being inflated by aggressive ADT values to a 104kt "consensus", but some of the other consensus members outside ADT seem to be hovering around 90kt. I have chosen to blend these consensus members with SAB and a six-hour average of adjusted-T values from UW-CIMSS ADT, arriving at an uncertain current strength of 90kt.


Fabio has around 24 hours to intensify going off of sea surface temperatures; such temperatures are already cooling off, but for now they are at least marginally supportive for strengthening as they should remain above 26°C until tomorrow afternoon. At last, Fabio is equipped with an aligned upper-level anticyclone, keeping wind shear to a minimum. Convection is on the increase again in an attempt to repair the convective damage caused by dry air, and while it is doing a decent job this morning, it remains rather asymmetric, which could curb intensification some. Patches of dry air are evident on infrared images west and northwest of the circulation, and given the storm's history with dry air it seems safe to assume that regardless of how moist the overall environment is, localized areas subsidence will continue to be present. However, given the general favorables, intensification should continue today to major hurricane intensity until tomorrow morning when the system begins to weaken, tapering off into a remnant low in five days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 90 KT 105 MPH

12H 03/0000Z 105 KT 120 MPH

24H 04/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH

36H 04/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH

48H 05/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH

72H 06/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 07/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

120H 08/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW