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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 13

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

3:00 AM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

The extent of deep convection within the central dense overcast has expanded significantly since the previous advisory, with a large ring of -70C convection wrapping halfway around the center to the south and east. The eye has made attempts at fully clearing over the past few hours, but this has not been a stable feature on infrared imagery so far thanks both to dry air intrusions from the west and bursts of deep thunderstorms to the south. A 0436z microwave pass indicated that the structural integrity of the hurricane has become more solid since this afternoon, with an eyewall that is barely open to the north. Due to the transient nature of the eye, satellite intensity estimates vary wildly at this time, with T4.0/65kt from SAB and 102kt from SATCON. Even the estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT differ significantly, with a final estimate of T5.8/110kt yet a raw estimate of T4.9/87kt. I believe the raw estimate is more representative of the storm strength, and I have blended that value with SAB and SATCON to yield an initial intensity of 85kt, making Fabio a Category 2 hurricane.

After fortifying its core this afternoon, Fabio has been on a gradual intensification trend. However, it is easy to see on infrared imagery that dry air continues to lurk just west of the eye of the hurricane, and intermittent injections of this dry air could prevent constant development. On the other hand, the extent of deep convection within the central dense overcast continues to increase and wrap around the eye. If this process is allowed to continue, the core will become more symmetric, the eye will warm, and a sharp jump in intensity is inevitable. Upper-level winds are as favorable as they have ever been, and ocean temperatures remain warm for now. As such, Fabio is still expected to become a major hurricane in a few hours, and the peak intensity has been left unchanged. Weakening should begin by this time tomorrow as the system crosses the 26°C isotherm and enters a more hostile environment; degeneration is expected by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 85 KT 100 MPH

12H 03/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH

24H 04/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH

36H 04/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH

48H 05/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH

72H 06/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 07/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

120H 08/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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