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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 10

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

9:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Microwave imagery from 1321Z shows Fabio has developed a nearly complete eyewall open towards the southwest, though high-resolution infrared and visible images from this morning show thunderstorms are attempting to fill in those gaps; a mid-level microwave eye is clearly evident. Fabio continues to possess a thunderous western band which is feeding moisture into the center of circulation, though for now this is also channelizing some dry air into that southwesterly gap. There is some northeasterly shear affecting Fabio that may allow the dry air to penetrate the hurricane's circulation, but for now Fabio is managing well as it continues to cycle convection while also improving the positioning of convection over the center. SAB estimated a constrained T3.5/55kt while TAFB gave T4.0/65kt in their subjective estimates. CIMSS SATCON members are 65kt across the board with only AMSU lagging likely due to its usage of an older microwave dataset that only featured a curved band with no eyewall. However, due to the continued convective bursting pattern masking a well-organized internal structure, the intensity has been raised to a perhaps aggressive 70kt.

No changes to the track philosophy as the strong subtropical ridge over the US Southern Plains extends its reach westward, maintaining a west-northwesterly heading for Fabio throughout the next five days. It should be noted that tracks from statistical and dynamical guidance have shifted more north. Intensity guidance has backed off on Fabio's intensification; SHIPS now only shows a Category 3 hurricane with LGEM depicting gradual strengthening to a high-end Category 2. Statistical consensus shows a solid Category 2 hurricane. HWRF and HMON have scaled back some as well. As discussed earlier, statistical guidance is generally lowering their estimations perhaps due to a percievably slowed intensification history, while dynmaical guidance might find the system's morning structure untenable. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable with warm sea surface temperatures and high moisture content. We've yet to see a well centered upper-level anticyclone, which has allowed some analyzed northeasterly 5-10kt shear over the circulation. I have elected to reduce the intensity forecast by a small bit but the overall theme remains the same. Enhanced intensification is featured out to 48 hours after which cooler waters and drier conditions begin to chip away at Fabio's intensity before accelerated weakening ensues over subtropical waters.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 03/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH

24H 03/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH

36H 04/0000Z 120 KT 140 MPH

48H 04/1200Z 115 KT 130 MPH

72H 05/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH

96H 06/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 07/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH