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Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 8

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Emilia has appeared to stabilize in organization, at least for the time being. A localized upper-level wave passing over the system at around 0930Z caused much of last night's convection to collapse, but convection has since refired and the storm appears to look the same as it did nine or so hours ago, if not slightly better with some -80°C cloud tops. Nighttime microphysics imagery from the twilight hours of the morning suggest that the center of circulation is not as displaced after being exposed five-six hours ago per AMSR microwave imagery at 0914Z. The center of circulation is a bit of a challenge to locate this morning, but first-light visibles and shortwave infrared imagery from this morning show the center is still staking its claim offset northeast of the intense convective activity. SAB estimates T3.0/45kt with UW-CIMSS ADT giving T2.7/39kt, while microwave analyses are keying in on a strong southwestern primordial eyewall band and yielding 50 kt. Given an overall lack of change in 12 hours, the intensity has been held at 50 kt, though this may be a bit generous.

Emilia has slowed somewhat on its west-northwest trajectory, but the overall theme should continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The day 2 shortwave trough over the Western United States is still expected to act as a mechanism in pulling the system slightly northward, but current analyses do not depict the trough digging as much as earlier anticipated and thus this northwestward curve will be fairly insignificant. Although Emilia looks decently organized this morning, the time it has over favorable waters is coming to a close. Coupled with a poorly positioned upper-level anticyclonic providing 20 kt deep-layer northeasterly shear, things are certainly looking quite dim with regard to Emilia's future. Sea surface temperatures are expected to rapidly fall beneath the storm in the day 2 window. Statistical guidance has realized this and have curtailed their projections, with several models not showing any strengthening before weakening commences. The strongest model I have seen this morning deepens Emilia to 987 mb, which would be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. The intensity forecast has been scaled back slightly this morning and shows weakening beginning tomorrow as the system moves over cooler waters.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 30/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 30/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 01/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 01/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 02/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH

96H 03/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 04/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW