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Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 7

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018

The overall convective pattern of Emilia has changed little over the past several hours, with a wide expanse of thunderstorms cooler than -75C continuing to maintain. However, a timely OSCAT pass from 0419z showed that the storm's low-level circulation has become better embedded within this convective activity. This same pass indicated that tropical storm-force winds were confined to the southwestern quadrant of the storm, with two 40kt wind barbs. So, even though satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are a unanimous T3.5/55kt, the initial intensity has been left at 50kt under the impression OSCAT is undersampling the strongest winds.

Neither the track nor intensity forecast has changed. Emilia is moving west-northwest and this motion is expected to continue until it degenerates to a remnant low after day 4, at which time low-level trade wind flow should direct the post-tropical cyclone westward. Upper-level winds are slowly decreasing, but this will be counteracted by increasingly cool sea surface temperatures. Some strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours, but Emilia is unlikely to become a hurricane unless it can quickly establish an inner core. There are no imminent signs of that at the current time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 29/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 30/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 30/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 01/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

96H 03/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 04/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW